US job losses mount as economic pain deepens
WASHINGTON (AP) — The ranks of America's unemployed swelled toward Great Depression-era levels in an unprecedented collapse that intensified the push-pull from the White House on down over how and when to begin lifting the coronavirus restrictions that have strangled the economy.
The government said 5.2 million more Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the four-week total to about 22 million out of a workforce of 159 million — easily the worst stretch of U.S. job losses on record. The losses translate to about 1 in 7 workers.
There’s no “good, up-to-date data on job losses in Indian Country,” said Joseph Kalt, co-director of the Harvard Project on American Indian Economic Development. He said breaking down how many of those 22 million unemployment benefits are for Native Americans and Alaska Natives would be “impossible” to do soon but could happen in a couple of years.
“We do know that basically all of the tribal casinos are closed,” Kalt said. “Many of the non-gaming businesses and in Indian Country, the tribes have, are closed.”
Why does that matter?
The Harvard Project found in its study, released this week, that COVID-19 will affect 1.1 million jobs in tribal governments and economies. This impacts 211,000 Native people and 915,000 non-Native people who hold these jobs in tribal gaming and non-gaming enterprises and tribal governments.
This problem is “really hitting Indian Country hard,” Kalt said.
“The reality is that many tribes have to rely on their gaming and non-gaming enterprise monies to fund their basic services,” he said. “And so it's not just the people that are working at say a tribal casino or other enterprise. It's also straight tribal government workers that are at tremendous risk right now.”
Researchers wrote to Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin in an April 10 letter that from their findings, “The largest share of lost jobs and lost income would be borne by non-Indians.”
“Our estimates indicate that approximately 70% of the impact – 915,000 jobs, with wages and benefits totaling $40.2 billion – would be suffered by non-Indian workers,” wrote the researchers. “These 915,000 jobs are a larger total than the entire civilian labor forces that were employed in 13 of the 50 states immediately prior to the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.”
Tribal economies work hand in hand with regional economies, too.
“For many parts of the country the tribal economies have become the anchors for the entire region,” Kalt said. Their research looked at the Hualapai Tribe in Arizona where they are the second largest employer in the region. The tribe doesn’t own a casino but had to shut down their tourism economy.
“And so the ripples are going to be not only the direct hit to the tribal economies too, but the regional economies in which tribal employees spend their money in which non-Native tribal employees spend their money,” Kalt said. “Those economies are going to be hit pretty hard.”
It’s even more dire for tribes if they don’t have diverse economies.
“In Indian Country you don't have kind of diversification, maybe one sector picks up and the others fall off,” Kalt said referring to pizza places in the U.S. hiring during the COVID-19 crisis. “So many tribes have not had diversified economies. And that means when you don't diversify when you get hit, it all goes down at once.”
The scene in the U.S.
President Donald Trump planned to announce late in the day a roadmap for easing the nation's social-distancing recommendations so that states can reopen for business. While many Americans have chafed at the lockdowns and the damage to their livelihoods, others, including business leaders and governors, have warned that more testing and protective gear are needed first.
"My No. 1 focus is to keep my family safe, so I'm really not in a hurry to put an end to this," said Denise Stockwell, who is about to lose her job in marketing at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. "I wouldn't want a misstep, which is why I get so enraged by what President Trump is saying."
But conservative economist Steven Moore, a Trump ally, said there will be 30 million people out of work in the country if the economy doesn't open back up soon.
"And that is a catastrophic outcome for our country. Period," Moore said. "We can't have 30 million people in this country unemployed or you're going to have social chaos."
Worldwide, the outbreak has infected more than 2 million people and killed approximately 140,000, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University, though the true numbers are believed to be much higher. The death toll in the U.S. topped 31,000, with over 600,000 confirmed infections.
The spread of the virus is declining in such places as Italy, Spain, France but is rising or continuing at a high level in Britain, Russia and Turkey, authorities said.
In other developments:
— Vladimir Putin postponed Russia's grand Victory Day parade May 9 in Red Square marking the 75th anniversary of Nazi Germany's defeat in World War II. Since Soviet times, Victory Day has been the nation's most important holiday, reflecting its wartime losses, put at more than 27 million dead.
— The New York metropolitan area, the most lethal hot spot in the U.S., reported more encouraging signs. The number of people in the hospital with the virus dropped to around 18,000 statewide — well short of the apocalyptic projections — and new deaths were put at 600, compared with the mid- to high 700s last week. "We've controlled the beast. We've brought the rate of spread down," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.
— Police acting on an anonymous tip found at least 18 bodies over two days at a nursing home in Andover Township, New Jersey, authorities said. All told, 68 deaths, including residents and nurses, have been linked to the home. Bodies were found packed into a room used to hold the dead until they can be picked by a funeral home.
Some leaders and citizens around the U.S., especially in rural areas and other parts of the country that have not seen major outbreaks, have called on governors to reopen stores, factories and schools.
An estimated 3,000 to 4,000 people turned out this week to decry the Michigan governor's restrictions, police broke up a demonstration in North Carolina that resulted in one arrest, and protests also took place in Oklahoma, Kentucky and Virginia.
But health authorities and many politicians have warned that lifting restrictions too soon could allow the virus to come storming back.
The decisions rest not with the White House but with state and local leaders, who imposed the mandatory lockdowns and other measures over the past month.
Mayor Bill de Blasio of hard-hit New York City, with more than one-third of the nation's coronavirus deaths, was among those urging caution.
"Everyone wants our economy to restart ... but there has to be a really clear understanding," he said Thursday. "If we can't provide the basics for our people, then you can kiss your recovery goodbye."
The economic damage, meanwhile, escalated around the world.
Many European countries, like the U.S., have seen heavy job losses, but the social safety nets there tend to stronger. Government subsidy programs in places like Germany and France are keeping millions of people on payrolls instead of letting them go on unemployment.
In the U.S., some economists said the unemployment rate could reach 20% in April, the highest since the Depression of the 1930s. Layoffs are spreading well beyond stores, restaurants and hotels to white-collar professionals such as software programmers and legal assistants.
Jacques Primo, 40, was laid off from his bartending job at a Savannah, Georgia, seafood restaurant.
"It's just shut down everything, turned off the whole city," Primo said as he waited in line at a food pantry. "Before, I've never been worried, because I'll go find another job. Now you can't. It's impossible."
By all accounts, the lifting of restrictions, when it happens, won't be like flipping a switch. Restaurants and other businesses may be reopened in phases, with perhaps a limited number of entrances or reduced seating areas, while grocery stores may stick with one-way aisles and protective shields at the cash registers, experts say.
Even then, it could take awhile before business comes back.
Jeremiah Juncker, manager of the Rappourt pub in Ann Arbor, Michigan, wonders whether anyone would come if he were even allowed to re-open.
"It might be 'back to normal' for everyone else, but people still don't feel comfortable gathering at restaurants and bars," he said.
Political leaders on the Continent are likewise trying to find a balance between the country's health and its wealth.
Italy's hard-hit Lombardy region is pushing to restart manufacturing on May 4, the day the national lockdown is set to end, with perhaps staggered opening hours to avoid crowding on public transportation. But Italy's deputy economic development minister, Stefan Buffagni, warned that approach could lead to confusion.
Britain, with over 13,700 dead, extended its nationwide lockdown on schools, pubs, restaurants and most stores for at least three more weeks in a move that appeared to have wide public support. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said, "Any change to our social distancing measures now would risk a significant increase in the spread of the virus."
Swiss authorities announced a staggered series of reopenings, starting in late April with medical and dental offices, hair salons and other select businesses, followed in May and June by other stores, schools, zoos, libraries and museums.
"Ladies and gentlemen, the transition is beginning," Home and Health Minister Alain Berset said. "We want to go as fast as possible, and as slow as necessary."
Other indicators suggested the worst has yet to come in some parts of the world.
Japan's prime minister announced he would expand a state of emergency to the entire country, rather than just urban areas, as the virus continued to spread. Japan has the world's oldest population, and the elderly are especially vulnerable to the coronavirus.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged stepped-up preparations in Africa, warning that the continent "could end up suffering the greatest impacts."
Indian Country Today and Associated Press journalists around the world contributed.