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The rush to a hushed election campaign

Analysis

WASHINGTON - Congress is back in session following the long August recess.

But a bare handful of working days are scheduled before Congress abandons

Capitol Hill again, this time for election campaigning of unusually high stakes

for the midterm of a presidency.

Republicans are the majority party in both the House of Representatives and

the Senate. By capturing 16 seats in the House and six in the Senate,

Democrats can return to the majority in both chambers. With majority status

comes

committee chairmanships and enormous authority over which priorities will be

pursued, which bills will get a hearing, which amendments will advance.

Allocations for majority staff are larger as well, and more hands on deck also

contribute to the difference between playing defense against majority

initiatives

and originating priority legislation.

Many observers expect lawmakers to extend their stay in Washington into

early October, despite the currently scheduled adjournment date of Sept. 29. In

any case, the majority GOP has established a modest agenda for September,

including work on defense spending, homeland security and other appropriations

bills popular with core Republican voters. Congress may even go so far as to

install a fence on the nation's southern border and call it immigration reform.

But for any other appropriations bills to be finalized before the November

elections, they will have to be perceived as helpful or at least not harmful to

Republicans, which means in part - not too popular with Democratic voters.

This means that after Oct. 1, the beginning of fiscal year 2007 most

government programs will have to be funded by continuing resolutions. If past

performances repeat themselves, the full federal budget may not be signed into

law

until late January of 2007 or later.

Between the early November elections and the commencement of the 110th

Congress in the first days of January, Congress may return to Washington for one

of its ''lame duck sessions.'' If so, the nation as a whole, and Indian country

in particular, must be on the alert for the unexpected. With voted-out

members serving out their terms, returning members eyeing the political

landscape

as it will shape up once November winners take office in January, and the

influence of the presidency reduced heading into Bush's final two years, the

conventional political motivations may not to apply to any votes taken, and the

regular order of Congress will certainly not to apply to any issues that may

be taken up.

In recent years, Indian country has made out fairly well from the famous

''flurry of activity'' that ends every session of Congress, as the sponsors of a

host of bills that will die without action discover the bargaining power to

resurrect their priorities for a ''unanimous consent'' vote. It's a process

that seems to work for Indian country more often than not, though we'll

probably never know how. But in a lame duck session, the usual processes may

not

work in quite the same way, so all bets are off.

It's customary and accurate to think of congressional members as being in a

rush to leave Washington for election campaigns that will seal their political

fate, and this year is no exception in that respect. But the rush is on for

campaigns that will prove remarkably hushed. With all of the indicators

turning up trump cards for Democrats, from fund-raising to poll numbers to the

president's unpopularity to the myriad failures of the current 109th Congress

and the disillusionment within conservative circles, GOP candidates can't win

on national issues such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the federal

budget, the political ethics of the most corrupt Congress in American history

or

the accomplishments of the most ''do-nothing Congress'' in decades. But

President Bush's one unequivocal accomplishment - keeping the nation safe from

terrorist attack a full five years after the atrocities of Sept. 11, 2001 -

complements the traditional Republican edge on issues of national defense and

security.

So while the president harps away on that theme in every imaginable

variation between now and November, Republican strategy calls for candidates to

hope

for some benefit from that direction while forsaking national perspectives of

their own in favor of local issues. By winning votes in distinct states and

districts on strictly local issues, Republicans hope to limit their inevitable

losses and somehow retain majority control on Capitol Hill. Democrats, by

and large, are content to let the Republican collapse run its course.

The wild card in all of this is whether some strange twist of war will hand

Republicans a patriotic turnout at the polls, somewhat in the way a policy

victory for Democrats on the Vietnam War paved the way to a 20-year GOP reign

(the Carter anomaly excepted) over the presidency.

Whatever their outcome, the upcoming elections - perhaps more than any other

since the decisive arrival of television in politics all the way back in

1960 - will be left in the hands of local voters