NEW YORK - As far as the stock markets go in upcoming years, watch out for a deep freeze.
At least, there's a good possibility that a persistent bear market will follow the ebullient bull market of the 1980s and 1990s, according to Dean T. Parisian, who runs Native American Advisors, Alpharetta, Ga.
Parisian, a Minnesota Chippewa from the White Earth reservation, said in a recent alert to investors, "Most investment professionals are of the opinion that the market has gone down for three straight years and that we cannot possibly have a fourth down year."
However, said Parisian, chairman of Native American Advisors, Chippewa Partners and The Chippewa Fund, "there is a different logic which says it's quite possible that we'll get another down year."
The investment advisor noted that the bull market of 1982 to 2000 was a "primary" bull market, which could be followed by a long-lasting primary bear market.
"History tells us that primary bull markets are always followed by primary bear markets that could last just as long. For example, during the last century we had primary bear markets that lasted from 1906 to 1921 (15 years), 1929 to 1949 (19 years) and 1966 to 1982 (16 years).
"That doesn't mean that some big rallies didn't occur during that time, but the overall thrust of the market was down. In my opinion, 2000 to 2010 could be a similar primary bear market."
Parisian is also predicting "that at least 35 percent of the current equity mutual funds will have closed down/merged by the time this bear market is over."
But, the analyst points out, "Primary bear markets often have very nice rallies." He is currently advising clients "we believe American 'growth' stocks are the place to be with a long/short approach."
Native American Advisors has been in business since 1995, when it registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It is the general partner for The Chippewa Fund, a hedge fund. Chippewa Partners is the investment arm of Native American Advisors. Parisian advises clients both in the United States and the United Kingdom.
Parisian started in the investment arena in 1982 and has worked for Kidder, Peabody & Co. and the former Drexel, Burnham Lambert. He also has been an officer in the trust unit of First Union Bank.
He also has been appointed an arbitrator to help settle disputes, both for the National Association of Securities Dealers and the New York Stock Exchange.
Parisian has endowed an Economics scholarship for American Indian students to study at the University of Minnesota. He is a member of the Association for Investment Management & Research, the Atlanta Society of Financial Analysts, and the Southeastern Hedge Fund Association.